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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward formula. It commonly acts as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who engineered the largest turnaround wins the award. In practice, it creates an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior coaching or simply the greatest shock.

But the latest competition is distinctly different. The list of candidates is remarkably talented. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions fading and recent underperformers ascending collectively. In an normal year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in this turbulent and thrilling season, he's competing with five other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the ideal vote ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right system, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his rare ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to create big plays from nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost each bet – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the building with the level of pressure he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. Yet this isn't a normal season!

Where Johnson's case comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for sustained success. However he comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has mastered the leadership aspects, which was not a given after his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. From the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. But Coen has pulled the entire group and everything together.

Following an early hot start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting reliable ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off since that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still