A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Each composes two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
