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Residents of the Big Apple will learn the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will decide who governs and defends the nation's largest city at a moment when the former president has threatened to deploy military troops to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against one another. The election has turned into an acrimonious face-off, laced with alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have major implications for how the party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the young progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and corporations.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who defeated his opponent in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and pledged to freeze rent for about two million New Yorkers, has led his rival by double-digits across all surveys conducted in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as the state's leader in recent years amid accusations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has trashed Mamdani's objectives as unachievable, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as bigoted after posting an AI-generated ad that featured a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent releasing a group of criminals.

This represents a particularly ugly end to an race that could be critical to the path that the party, floundering in its response to the former president's power moves, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

Should the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his campaign will be forced to reckon with a message that has appealed to Americans' frustration at inequality, inflation and the establishment. It would be hard for the Senate leader and the House leader not to adopt at least a portion of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has created an excitement within the Democratic ranks perhaps not witnessed since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House in 2016.

Conversely, should Cuomo, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, achieve a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement national Democrats' existing approach of cautious, uninspiring opposition – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A New York rejection of Mamdani's optimistic platform could persuade party leaders that the wisest course is to remain in the political center – even as polls show the current iteration of the party is widely disliked across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in the city appear to favor the progressive agenda. Polls show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for New York and his readiness to actually get out and connect with voters in the metropolis has attracted an army of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

However, Cuomo, 67, continues to fight. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has resorted to negative campaigning in the final days.

After spending months throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might stick, the independent has concentrated on attacking Mamdani personally. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo asserted the city “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It hit bottom last week, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to the capital and warned to take similar action to NYC, has said about the progressive, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to the Republican in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to get the independent into office, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the contest.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his mayoral bid in last year, not many had heard of him, and in truth, few even noticed.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the race in March 2025 and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who seemingly held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a political dynasty member and served in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his father, the former governor, left office from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a more positive vision of the city's direction than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, Mamdani has encountered difficulties in recent days, after footage surfaced appearing to show him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the recording, filmed at a DSA convention in recent years. Mamdani, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was criticizing cooperative programs between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, Mamdani seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive addressed Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first ran for the legislature, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could express their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the behavior of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd